The Credit Research Initiative (CRI) is a non-profit undertaking by the Risk Management Institute at NUS, and seeks to promote research and development in the critical area of credit risk. The foundation of the CRI is the probability of default (PD) model which has been developed using a database of over 60,000 listed firms in Asia Pacific, North America, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. This web portal presents the outputs from this model, including daily updated PDs for individual firms in the aforementioned regions and aggregate PDs for different economies and sectors. Future phases of this initiative will expand our coverage to include the remainder of the global economy.

This non-profit initiative was conceptualized by Professor Jin-Chuan Duan in March 2009. It takes a "public good" approach to credit rating with the goal of keeping the PD model current, evolutionary and organic, and functions like a "selective Wikipedia." RMI announced the CRI in July 2009 and started releasing results from its PD model in July 2010 at its fourth Annual Risk Management Conference. The presentation on the CRI is available here, while the updated version is available here.

This website serves as the information centre for the CRI and will be updated on a daily basis to demonstrate its operational feasibility and ensure the relevance of its contents.


In 2009, RMI embarked on this non-profit Credit Research Initiative to constructively address the criticisms against for-profit credit rating agencies. More


A public good approach to credit ratings that taps the global research pool and is completely transparent to the user. More

Coverage of results

The CRI currently covers 116 economies and produces credit risk measures for over 60,000 listed firms. More

Approach to research

The RMI Credit Research Initiative adopts an innovative approach to research seldom used in finance and economics by inviting external teams to join in our efforts in a "selective Wikipedia" approach. More


The Credit Research Initiative was launched in July 2009. Click to show more information ...