The Credit Research Initiative (CRI) is a non-profit undertaking by the Risk Management Institute at NUS, and seeks to promote research and development in the critical area of credit risk. The foundation of the CRI is the probability of default (PD) model which has been developed using a database of over 60,000 listed firms in Asia Pacific, North America, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. This web portal presents the outputs from this model, including daily updated PDs for individual firms in the aforementioned regions and aggregate PDs for different economies and sectors. Future phases of this initiative will expand our coverage to include the remainder of the global economy. As of July 2014, this web portal also provides the daily updated Actuarial Spread for all companies under the CRI coverage. The Actuarial Spread provides a new perspective to credit risk and is an alternative measure using the RMI PD.

This non-profit initiative was conceptualized by Professor Jin-Chuan Duan in March 2009. It takes a "public good" approach to credit rating with the goal of keeping the PD model current, evolutionary and organic, and functions like a "selective Wikipedia." RMI announced the CRI in July 2009 and started releasing results from its PD model in July 2010 at its fourth Annual Risk Management Conference. An updated presentation on the CRI is available here.

This website serves as the information centre for the CRI and will be updated on a daily basis to demonstrate its operational feasibility and ensure the relevance of its contents.


In 2009, RMI embarked on this non-profit Credit Research Initiative to constructively address the criticisms against for-profit credit rating agencies. More


A public good approach to credit ratings that taps the global research pool and is completely transparent to the user. More

Coverage of results

The CRI covers listed companies in Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, Latin America, Middle East and Africa at this time. Of the 40,000 active firms under the CRI coverage, More

Approach to research

The RMI Credit Research Initiative adopts an innovative approach to research seldom used in finance and economics by inviting external teams to join in our efforts in a "selective Wikipedia" approach. More


The Credit Research Initiative was launched in July 2009. Click to show more information ...